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Advice for the Clueless

Never have so many people in the derivatives business been so uninformed about the basic changes affecting their industry.

In the last few months, we have watched a new derivatives economy take shape before our eyes. A slew of Internet startups are trying to replace the capital markets Goliaths of Wall Street. At the same time, the Wall Street firms are frantically developing systems to allow clients to transact their business electronically. Derivatives exchanges and interdealer brokers, meanwhile, are trying hard remain in the game.

In some asset classes, competing dealers are banding together to offer a single electronic vehicle. But other dealer efforts are an embarrassing hodgepodge, with different units within the same bank launching separate sites to serve the same clients. The web pioneers, meanwhile, are long on dreams and short on deal flow.

In the next round, we're likely to see more consolidated efforts from all competitors. We may also see deep cutbacks in Wall Street sales personnel. One consultant has already baldly declared: "There is no long-term career track for Treasury salespeople in the USA.” Derivatives dealers, the custom tailors of the financial world, may be spared some of the carnage. But there's little doubt that vanilla derivatives deals will increasingly be traded electronically—at even lower margins than we're seeing today.

All this frenetic activity has bred more confusion than knowledge. As we reported this story, we heard about several new ventures that had the potential to change the face of the market forever. But many of the people we interviewed were unaware of what was going on in their own back yards.

This is a unique moment in financial history—a time when the rules are being rewritten so quickly that nobody is an expert and everybody is an idiot. To raise the general level of intelligence, we've put together this snapshot of all the electronic trading initiatives affecting the derivatives market.

In future issues, we'll continue to track the status of the nascent electronic revolution in depth. Fasten your seat belts.

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