|
The World According to Gary Perlin
Gary L. Perlin ranks as a prominent derivatives user who knows a whole
lot about innovation. Last March he became treasurer of the World Bank,
taking over from Jessica Einhorn. But this isn't his first stint on K Street.
In fact he began his career at the Bank in 1975, then moved to Wall Street.
In 1982 Perlin returned to Washington for an 11-year stint at the Federal
National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) culminating as senior vice president
for finance and treasurer, a job he held until he left in early 1993 to
rejoin the World Bank, also an early and very conspicuous player in the
derivatives market. Though Perlin wasn't on board for the Bank's historic
first currency swap in the late 1970s, just a few blocks away he did at
lot of pioneering work while at Fannie Mae. There he became such a respected
figure that he was invited onto the board of the Futures Industry Association
and also joined the G30 working group.
In over a decade at the helm of the one the largest agency borrowing
programs in the U.S., he was in a unique position to witness the radical
changes in the capital markets that occurred during those tempestuous years.
This interview was conducted by contributing editor Simon Boughey.
Derivatives Strategy: In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Fannie
Mae embarked on a program involving much wider use of derivatives. Will
you sketch the problems the agency faced and how you thought that derivatives
would help?
Gary L. Perlin: If we go back to 1982, when I first arrived, it
was a time of exceptionally high interest rate volatility and an exceptionally
high absolute level of rates. I indicate those as two separate issues because
Fannie Mae as a company had two sets of problems. One was the process by
which it, in effect, sold forward commitments to purchase mortgages, which
had a very strong options component. Because of the volatility, the fees
that were being charged were well below a value that compensated Fannie
Mae for taking the short-term risk during the commitment period.
The second problem was the very high absolute level of rates, which occurred
at a time that the company had a huge duration mismatch. The fact that its
portfolio was short-funded at the same time as there were very high nominal
rates meant there was a significant negative net worth. So in 1982 there
was both a flow problem and a stock problem.
We talked a lot about the flow problem at the time because it was the
easiest thing to understand and the easiest thing to fix. Among other things,
we just stopped issuing optional commitments, because we did not have a
good hedging mechanism, nor did we have a reliable pricing regime. All of
the commitments were converted from being optional delivery commitments
to mandatory or forward delivery commitments.
It was not long after that we began to address the stock problem, because
that was what represented the greatest risk to the balance sheet. This was
a much longer process. It meant the issuance of longer-term debt to redress
the duration imbalance. And it meant integrating the use of derivatives
capacities so that the balance sheet would become more matched.
So, as early as 1982, we were using T-bill and Eurodollar futures to
synthetically extend the average duration of short-term debt outstanding.
At the time we used futures because there were no other derivatives. We
also began to time the pricing of long-term debt issues more tactically.
And like many people what we realized in the mid-1980s was that we had to
start thinking about risk management from a more comprehensive standpoint.
This meant not only using derivatives, but also thinking about our regular
business in a context of risk management. All of a sudden, derivatives forced
you to recognize the inherent risks in your balance sheet.
That was the really big challenge up until the late 1980s, when the next
stock problem became one of dealing with another optionality mismatch in
the balance sheet. We had a convexity mismatch because our mortgage assets
were callable and our debt was not, so it was then a matter of spending
the next four to five years dealing with that sort of risk.
DS: Could you not solve that simply by issuing more callable debt?
GLP: Exactly. That is what we ended up doing, and it was something
that we could only redress in the long run by issuing callable debt. But
if you go back to 1988, by which time the overall duration mismatch had
largely been managed away, we had $100 billion worth of assets on the balance
sheet and we had no callable debt at all. So we were required to move very
deliberately over time. I believe when I left at the beginning of 1993,
well over half of Fannie Mae's outstanding debt had some form of call feature.
Here the use of derivatives was more limited. It was not as though we
went and hedged the optionality mismatch in the balance sheet, because we
could not have advised that kind of exposure. We just had to build up the
amount of calls on the liability side, and the way to do that was to increase
the range and volume of option-embedded structures that we could sell to
the marketplace. Often that required that we link up an off-balance-sheet
position in conjunction with the new issue in order to achieve cost-effective
access to a huge amount of options.
DS: So Fannie Mae's use of callable debt was quite different from
some of your colleagues in the agency market, like those at the Federal
Home Loan Bank, who were selling the option components to achieve deep sub-LIBOR
funding?
GLP: That's correct. We kept our calls. Fannie Mae's balance sheet
was almost exclusively comprised of long-term fixed rate mortgages, so it
did not make sense to offer a debt structure that allowed you to get long
options, and then to turn around and sell that.
DS: So what kind of off-balance-sheet instruments were you combining
with new issues of debt?
GLP: To a large extent they were currency structures that would
be swapped. Many of the structured issues had complex formulas, with floors
and caps and so forth. Occasionally we would need to match those off against
some derivatives positions so that we would be left with vanilla corporate
callable-type structures. We hedged away the additional features.
DS: How were Fannie Mae's first forays into the Eurobond market
in the late 1980s received?
GLP: They had mixed receptions because the U.S. agencies had structural
disadvantages related to the registration requirements. Also, there was
not much demand for callable paper in the Eurobond market. We focused on
internationalizing our debt sales in 19861988, but that was more a
matter of trying to redress the duration mismatch on the balance sheet.
We needed to sell a whole lot of very long term debt. It was just at
the time when investment flows, particularly from Asia, became very important.
Japanese investors became major buyers of long-term Treasuries and they
found a lot of value in buying long-term agencies as well. But our use of
the international market was more a matter of redressing the duration mismatch
rather than the options mismatch.
DS: Why did it take Fannie Mae so long to issue callable debt
to match its assets?
GLP: That's a good question. I think that the issue was one of
priorities. Through the course of the 1980s, Fannie Mae's bigger risk was
its duration mismatch, and to reduce interest rate risk we needed to focus
on issuing a lot of longer-term debt. I think to have tried to hedge away
the options mismatch would have made that job more difficult and more costly.
Moreover, once absolute rates came down substantially, the options risk-which
was exceptionally high for fixed rate loans that originated in the early
1980s where the coupons were substantially into the double digits-rose significantly.
We also understood that we had to develop the agency callable market in
such a way that would allow us to issue very substantial amounts of debt
over time.
DS: Were you successful in erasing the duration mismatch and the
optionality mismatch?
GLP: Over the ten years from 1982 to 1992, Fannie Mae was successful
in doing that. Of course there were a lot of different pieces to the puzzle.
Not only were we active on the liability side, but also on the asset side:
for example, floating rate mortgages appeared, which helped fix things.
But you cannot look at it without recognizing the scope of the duration
mismatch. It took a very substantial period of time to change simply because
of the volume of business to be done.
DS: Did Fannie Mae make any assessment of how much the derivatives
program of the 1980s saved the agency-and the U.S. taxpayer, of course?
GLP: I am not aware of any overall assessment which was made.
Individual evaluations were done, and the one that is clearest in my mind
was in 1982. We had synthetically extended the life of our short-term debt
by shorting some T-bill and Eurodollar futures on which we had a net margin
outflow as rates declined. But because the decline in rates had an even
more positive impact on Fannie Mae's cost of debt, our spreads to Treasuries
shrunk considerably. We achieved tens of millions of dollars of net positive
value through exercise.
We tried extremely hard throughout the decade to make sure that any hedge
strategy was fully integrated into the overall asset/liability management
strategy and looked to the net performance of the portfolio. Eventually
it was clear that not only had we reduced the risk inherent in the balance
sheet, but we had facilitated profitable growth in the portfolio by being
able to match at the margin as well as on the embedded stock.
DS: Tell me about Fannie Mae's relationship with the dealer community.
Did those relationships change as the program progressed and the market
developed?
GLP: I think the relationship with the dealer community was always
central to the exercise. The range of relationships went from derivatives
to very extensive cash market relationships as well. The role of different
firms developed over time. Some firms became very adept at structuring deals
that provided us with attractively priced options, particularly the bulge-bracket
firms that had good underwriting and risk management capacities. Our relationship
with regional firms matured. Many of them had extremely good distribution
capacities for debt that had optionality embedded in it. We had growing
relationships with international dealers who recognized the company as a
large player.
DS: What were the most important innovations in Fannie Mae's changing
relationships with the dealer community?
GLP: Collateralized derivatives contracts really opened the world
to us. Perhaps the first collateralized swap would have been done around
1989, and until then our swap guidelines were so credit restrictive that
it meant that we did not have the capacity to do swaps with the majority
of dealers. That inability to use their structuring capacity meant we could
not tap the market for large amounts of callable liabilities.
However, the drive towards collateralization was a bit difficult. There
were some dealers in the market who resisted moving towards the idea of
collateral because they were very highly rated and did not want to lose
that competitive advantage. This was in the days prior to special purpose
vehicles, and some of the lower-rated credits did not want to set precedents
of offering collateral or doing one-way mark-to-market agreements. Yet we
were such a prospectively large business partner that dealers decided the
profit potential made it worthwhile to engage in such credit-enhancing activities.
It was something that needed to be brought along over time; it was not something
that they immediately saw as being in their own best interest.
DS: How do you think Fannie Mae's experience was different from
some of the other agencies?
GLP: I think the experience was different because many of the
other agencies were using the same markets to obtain very attractively priced
floating rate money. They ended up using many of the techniques that Fannie
Mae also used, but they didn't necessarily have the same long-term market
development interests that we had. Once the markets developed, what we needed
to manage our balance sheet was often very different than what other agencies
needed to manage their balance sheet. What we shared was a credit standing
and a market access. So we very often acted very similarly in the markets,
but with different long-term management strategies.
DS: Did the Federal Home Loan Bank and other agencies always get
value for money when they sold calls and options?
GLP: It's my impression that most agencies invested significantly
in their ability to assess the value in the structures. I think-particularly
if they were not looking to maintain a long position in calls on the liability
side of the balance sheet-they only engaged in transactions that made good
sense for them. However, whether or not they got full value would have been
a function of their ability to reverse-engineer the structures and their
ability to disaggregate the execution of the underwriting versus the execution
of the related swap. Sometimes they could do this and sometimes they could
not. Sometimes the structures were so complicated that it was difficult
to disaggregate.
Over time it became a relatively competitive market where you had a variety
of agencies able to issue and find a way to use the proceeds and the embedded
options with a variety of underwriters and swap counterparties. For any
one structure there were probably several prospective issuers and several
prospective underwriters which led to a very competitive dynamic.
DS: Was the heyday of the structured note market in the early
1990s detrimental to the agencies? Although it provided very attractive
funding, in the long term did it do a disservice to the agency market?
GLP: The perspective that we had at Fannie Mae was that the long-run
health of the market was important to our balance sheet. Many of our callable
structures were issued in large sizes with very transparent structures.
It is also important to recall that the reason that market developed was
that investors were looking to take on market risk, because of the low absolute
level of rates. However, the leveraged buyout and related fever of the late
1980s had made them very concerned about event risk on the credit side.
It was clear to most participants in the market that the reason investors
were buying strong credits was as an effective means of creating a market
exposure without taking on a lot of credit risk.
Did some investors delude themselves into thinking that low credit risk
meant low market risk? Probably. Did some of these issues become fodder
in the hands of poorly managed investment entities? Probably so. Did the
agencies always do enough work to know who was buying their paper? Probably
not. But the competitive pressures were very strong.
DS: Fannie Mae must have been subject to some fairly strong sales
pressures from different Wall Street shops. Bearing that in mind, did the
Proctor & Gamble/Bankers Trust scandal surprise you, or did you think
that somewhere along the line something like that was bound to happen?
GLP: Fannie Mae was quite knowledgeable about why we were using
derivatives. Derivatives were always being used to bring about exposures
that we otherwise would gladly have created on our balance sheet with cash
instruments had they been available, or had they been available at the same
sort of cost. But the dealers did not typically inquire about our strategy,
nor were we necessarily forthcoming about it.
It is not surprising to me that many end-users whose principal business
is not the management of financial risks were convinced about the value
of taking on financial exposures to achieve extraordinary gains. They were
neither well-advised by outsiders nor particularly well-regulated by their
own corporate management. I do not believe that the dealer community could
be expected to take on that governance role. Whether the dealers became
a problem as well as simply not being part of the solution is really a matter
for others closer to the situation to judge.
DS: On to your job at the World Bank. What are your sub-LIBOR
targets these days?
GLP: That changes slowly over time. I think that at the World
Bank we definitely have very strong motivations to obtain sub-LIBOR funding.
The level is not picked out of the air, but based on what it is we perceive
we can achieve for the volume of funding we need to do. It actually varies
from year to year in terms of several basis points, sometimes tens of basis
points, because of what is available in the structures and markets in which
we operate. We certainly have aggressive targets, but only aggressive in
terms of what we think our credit, our primary and derivatives market capacities
and our volume requirements would allow us to achieve. But we are also very
scrupulous about not saying what that target is, because otherwise we would
end up dictating the target and perhaps lose touch with the market.
DS: Has the World Bank set an amount to be raised in 19961997?
GLP: In the fiscal year just begun, 1997, we have estimated that
our borrowing may be a little bit elevated from the last couple of years,
at $13 billion to $14 billion. The difference is that the currency composition
will become increasingly less predictable as we are offering our borrowers
greater flexibility (see Derivatives Strategy, July/August 1996). In fact
we have told people to expect a much less predictable program from the bank
with more mid-course changes in direction.
|