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Does the World Need Another Internet Index? Maybe So.
When it comes to stock-index creations in a hot sector, listed exchanges
manifest the intense rivalry of Paris and Milan fashion designers in Spring.
Witness the latest fuss over the CBOE's brand new Internet Index (INX),
on which options trading began February 20. Only four months earlier the
American Stock Exchange launched its own Inter@active Week Internet Index
(IIX) to capitalize on all the Net-hype and the craze for its equities.
"While they call theirs an Internet index, it is very broadly defined,
with a lot of software companies included," says Joe Levin, vice president
of research at the CBOE. "I don't see it as a pure play like ours.
And the feedback we've been getting supports that."
The CBOE's creation may look like a knock-off, but it's definitely cut
from different cloth. For one thing, it is an equal-dollar-weighted average
of Internet players, so no one stock has a disproportionate ability to drive
the results. The Amex version, by contrast, is capitalization weighted.
As a result a big player in this category, like Cisco Systems, can account
for about 20 percent of the movement, while many others have only a one
or two percent influence.
Some other differences: the CBOE index has 15 stocks, versus 38 on the
Amex. (They have 12 stocks in common.) The CBOE's options are European,
cash settled, with strikes at five-point intervals. The Chicago version
may also be more volatile, according to Salomon Brothers vice president
in equity derivatives Leon Gross, who reconstructed the price histories
of stocks in both indices. "Some of the more volatile names, such as
Netscape, Spyglass and UUNet, have a larger weight in the equal-weighted
CBOE Index," he says. "By having fewer names, the CBOE index is
less diversified."
Gross points out that volatilities in some of the underlying Internet
stocks often hit 100 percent. In fact, volatility for the Inter@ctive Week
index was in the 40-plus range last December, confirming what most people
suspect: that the sector trades as a group and that investors apparently
do not discriminate between these companies. Volatilities, however, seem
to be declining as investors regain their sanity. For example, 10 and 20-day
historic volatilities in the Amex index dropped to around 20 as of mid-February.
That suggests an increase both in Wall Street analysts' coverage and in
discrimination between these stocks. The stocks themselves have cooled down
as well. (See chart.)
The Amex's Inter@ctive Week index is clearly a success. Last year average
daily volume was 1,172 contracts; in January it was 1,500. "Some sector
indices trade five, 10, 20 contracts a day," says Gross. "Compared
to other sectors, this index is quite robust."
Here's a final fashion note. Last month the New York Futures Exchange
announced yet another creation: it applied for permission to trade futures
and options on the Pacific Stock Exchange's Technology Index, which is heavily
weighted with Silicon Valley players but heretofore only lightly traded.
Two Cheers for a New Risk Management Standard
By Simon Boughey
Anyone who has been collecting derivatives reports will have groaning
bookshelves by now. First the derivatives industry received the massive
G30 report on risk, then the OCC's voluminous risk study BC-277, followed
by the Federal Reserve's version, SR-93-69. More recently there's been a
study by the Derivatives Policy Group, the Basle capital adequacy directive
and a paper on value-at-risk by the International Organization of Securities
Commissions. As if that were not enough, the British office of accounting
firm Coopers & Lybrand has published a 227-page document entitled Generally
Accepted Risk Principles (GARP), available for $90.00.
The study's recommendations to users are delivered in 89 keynote principles, says Joel Tancer, a partner with Coopers & Lybrand in New York. These
precepts give the board of directors ultimate responsibility for implementing
and monitoring a coherent risk management strategy.
This is not a new message. The G30 report, unveiled in July 1993 at the
height of the great derivatives scare, stressed the importance of board
comprehension and control of risks undertaken. Indeed, some readers of GARP
have noted similarities to the G30 report in both the tone and the structure.
Says a senior official at the Federal Reserve: "I don't want to suggest
value hasn't been added, but all these things are in essence derivative
of the G30. When I saw GARP, there was a sense of 'Here we go again.'"
GARP, however, lays out the principle of internal control in exhaustive
detail. For example, there are over 50 pages devoted to an examination of
risk management strategy and the policies to be followed.
The study argues that risk management objectives are critical to a company's business strategy, that all areas of a firm must function in an integrated
fashion, and that companies should try examine a wide variety of risks they
may be exposed to. It also recommends establishing a separate executive-level
risk committee that reports directly to the board, as well as an independent
risk management department to keep the board up to date.
GARP is aimed equally at dealers and end-users and has been prepared
with the assistance and guidance of bankers, central banks and regulators,
including BZW, JP Morgan, the CFTC, the SEC, Britain's Securities and Investment
Board and the Bank of England. Assembling the study took almost a year from
the working lives of 10 souls at Coopers & Lybrand. Tancer says that
there has been very good demand for the document from both dealers and end-users.
Whether GARP will supplant its competitors as a standard remains to be
seen. The new venture is competing with several independent risk management
consultants that already have a bit of marketing, promotion and client contact
under their belts. But there is room for one more, concludes Tancer: "There
have been enough corporate disasters in the last couple of years to indicate
that there is still a big need out there."
No Dealer Liability Fix
Seems that dealers, their lawyers and their lobbyists spend a lot of
time coming up with liability reduction fixes. The latest try issues from
the Derivatives Policy Group, an organization for bank dealers. Last March
it proposed a boilerplate disclosure statement that would emphasize the
arms' length caveat emptor relationship. As a trial balloon, the generic
language prepared by Credit Suisse Financial Products was floated before
the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The response? The OCC refused
to endorse this or any other such generic disclosure language. It wants
to see tailor-made risk assessments for each deal-a feature that will surely
make selling derivatives touchier, and pump up dealers' legal costs as well.
Software Pirates Get Amnesty
The past four months Astrogamma has been making a highly unusual attempt
to control software piracy: an amnesty program for bootleg copies of FENICS,
the industry's leading FX options package. In an ad placed in FX Week president
Michael Adam stated his terms: "We will not take any punitive action
against anyone who approaches us to purchase a copy of FENICS until March
31, 1996." If the purchaser later turns out to have a version already
installed, Astrogamma will just wink. However, those who don't symbolically
turn in their weapons will face the full blast of legal retribution if caught.
Astrogamma reckons that the 30 software pirates it has stumbled across
and nailed for infringement-in some cases getting substantial punitive damages-are
only the tip of the iceberg. Astrogamma sales records indicate that FENICS
has about an 80 percent market share, but that close to 100 percent of the
estimated 1,000 interbank FX players are using it. At a basic sticker price
of $25,000, that computes to a shortfall of between six and eight million
in lost sales and update fees.
Was the program a success? That's hard to measure, said a company spokesman last month: "Sales are strong anyway, so it is difficult because of
the boom to calculate the effect of the amnesty offer. But we are sure it
is having some effect."
In early March Astrogamma announced it had been acquired by a group of
new investors, who've been running the firm since last June. Out of the
picture is Peter Cyrus, founder and former sole proprietor. The new team
at the helm will aggressively invest in systems that will link FENICS to
more data bases and facilitate reconciliations with back office risk management
systems-and they'll also try further moves to clear the software seas of
pirates.
Surveys show strong upsurge of users
Capital Access, market researchers, surveyed 481 investment firms and
found that two thirds use derivatives in some fashion. It said last month
that 23 percent expect to increase their derivatives use this year, versus
14 percent who are decreasing. Bank portfolio departments and mutual funds
were the heaviest users, while investment managers and trust departments
were less involved. A significant 73 percent of the sample use derivatives
for investment purposes, and only 27 percent for balance sheet/risk management.
"Despite the maligned image associated with the much-publicized
corporate and municipal derivatives disasters, our survey results show that
derivatives are not being used for speculative purposes," explains
David D. Farrington, chairman of Capital Access.
A slightly less rosy picture comes from Greenwich Associates' survey
of corporate usage in 1995, which found a decline of nearly a quarter in
the number of users over 1994. The remaining users were split roughly 50/50
between those who increased or decreased their derivative portfolios, according
to 529 treasury executives. Some 40 of the most active users, less than
10 percent of the total, accounted for more than 65 percent of the volume.
But even if a significant number of treasurers stuck their heads in the
sand, overall volume nonetheless was up 15 percent according to Greenwich
data. The survey firm also forecast a sunny 1996, predicting steady demand
for interest rate swaps, options, caps, collars and floors-as well as for
listed exchange products.
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