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Leeson's Story Rings True
By John Thackray
So far we've had L'Affair Leeson according to a highly suspect version
distributed by the Bank of England and Barings. Now it's Leeson's turn to
tell his side. Rogue Trader: How I Brought Down Barings Bank and Shook the
Financial World (Little Brown) hit the stores on both sides of the Atlantic
last month, and has climbed to number 11 on the British best-seller list,
a position it richly deserves. It is a tale told through the prism of the
British class system: how a working class settlements clerk becomes mythologized
as a Wonder Trader and is given too much slack by patrician and inept bosses.
Upwardly Mobile
Leeson first won accolades for sorting through a £100 million mountain of unreconciled share certificates in Baring's Jakarta office. His reward:
a position heading up both Barings' trading and back office operations at
SIMEX. Overworked and understaffed, Leeson was unable to stanch the flow
of reconciliation errors, which ended up in an error account-a standard
practice he says.
One day he was ordered to open a second error account in Singapore. "We don't want to be bothered with all the tiny errors you are clocking up -over
50 a day. The auditors will start asking questions," the London boss
reportedly said. Leeson then created error account 88888 (a lucky number
in Chinese). Although later London reversed itself because it had a new
computer than could handle these transactions, it failed to wipe 88888 from
the system.
"By the way, why do you make so many errors?" the official
asked.
"If you saw the floor here, you'd understand. It is utter chaos,
but the business is good," Leeson responded.
Leeson put all the big bloopers that might have angered supervisors into
88888. He also learned how to make real and bogus offsetting transactions
to make the account appear inactive in the month-end printouts. As the account
grew, Leeson was driven into bigger offsetting purchases of futures and
sales of options. To fund positions and margin calls, Leeson relied on the
incompetence of Barings, which wired money on demand. His scheme would be
"unthinkable in any other bank, certainly unthinkable at Morgan Stanley,
but my lines of communication with London were so vague that nobody knew
who I reported to," he writes.
At one point 88888 was down £6 million, but after executing some
risky trades Leeson reduced the losses to zero-and swore never to touch
it again. Alas, he did not have the strength of will. "I was probably
the only person in the world to be able to operate on both sides of the
balance sheet," he says. "It became an addiction."
Slippery Slope
If that seems morally vacuous, so be it. Ostensibly running an operation
restricted to arbitrage with no overnight positions and no proprietary trading,
Leeson's addiction got worse and worse. In 1994, Barings reported a pre-tax
profit of £100 million. By then account 88888 was £23 million
in the red. In order to bring in enough option premiums to fund his losses,
Leeson took to selling completely unhedged positions. When the market went
against him the losses hit £50 million.
Meantime Leeson's persistent flow of faxed requests for funds were met
with no questions asked, thanks to a combination of ineptitude and a blind
faith in Leeson's purported prowess. Eventually Barings had to violate Bank
of England ceilings on transfers of share capital abroad in order to fuel
Singapore's hunger for funds. At a time when 88888's losses stood at around
£150 million, Leeson visited London over Christmas and was introduced
to Barings' CEO. "He's such a red hot trader that I've arranged for
him to come in overnight and keep trading the Nikkei," he claims his
superior told the CEO. "You can't keep Nick away from the floor. He's
an animal. He's just insane. You should see the way he takes the market
on. He's second to none." With a mixture of gloating and shame, Leeson
imagines the look on their faces if he blurted out the truth.
Two months later Leeson resorted to forging correspondence to keep up
the house of cards and deceive auditors Coopers & Lybrand. This Rubicon
passed, he decided to double up on £200 million in losses. And London
continued to fund him blindly. By the middle of February 1995 Leeson had
"absorbed something like £300 million of funding-when the entire
share capital base of Barings Bank itself was just £470 million."
As the end approaches his myopia is just like an addict's. He tries unavailingly to push up Nikkei futures and then walks off the set. At a North Borneo
resort he blinks incredulously at a newspaper headline on the collapse of
Barings.
No Charm, Good Pace
Thanks in part to capable ghosting by Edward Whitley, Rogue Trader is
a well-paced yarn. Though Leeson is a less-than-charming personality, he
is not cardboard. We are treated to his ambitious mother and the hero's
grief at her death, his plasterer father who thinks being stuck in blue-collar
Watford is no bad thing. Then there is the meeting with Miss Right, Lisa,
who is currently working in a tea shop and hoping to qualify as an airline
hostess on the Southeast Asia run so she can visit Nick.
Above all the book is a unique sociological (and often scatological)
picture of floor trading and traders. Here, for instance, is a scene in
the traders lounge at SIMEX: "It was full of armchairs where traders
crashed out, farting and burping and nursing their hangovers. The lavatories
were always full of puke, blocked up and with footprints on the seats where
everyone squatted rather than sat to have their crap. I had an upset stomach,
but by the time I'd found a half presentable lavatory my bowels had miraculously
shriveled up. All the same I'd thrown up at the smell of the rest of the
puke." There are unsentimental excursions to pubs in Watford (where
Nick's best friend liked to unzip his fly and place its contents in way
of ladies' hands), bars in Singapore (where Nick once "moons"
a group of airline hostesses and gets in trouble with the law), and more
bars in New York and Dublin. In Tokyo, besotted with beer and sake, Nick's
companions throw raw fish at an elderly geisha playing a guitar.
It was only natural that Leeson should seek to offload some of the responsibility for the disaster on his superiors. But the evidence he accumulates against
them is credible, detailed and vivid. Rarely in the annals of business has
a management been so delusional and out of touch with reality.
Black Box Fire Sale
Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones abruptly quits the software business,
leaving his much-hyped software firm in need of a buyer...and fast!
"Stick to your knitting" is one of the hoariest business management clichés around, and last month Paul Tudor Jones decided to do just
that. After less than one year in the software business, he opted to end
his financial commitment to Tudor Software, which employs more than 40 people.
Clearly the news was a shock to president David Hirschfeld and his minions,
who were hyping their product and recruiting staff right up until the moment
the plug was pulled.
So what went wrong? It had seemed a great strategy to "black-box" the brain of Paul Tudor Jones and give it a slick name like Ranger. But
the real brain of the famous trader clearly wasn't happy with the fact that
the world didn't immediately beat a path to his door. At the time the software
venture was founded, Wall Street wondered if Jones would tolerate the comparatively
low rates of return, the long payouts and the steep development dollars
that it would take to succeed. Evidently not.
Ranger is basically Tudor Investment's own in-house software, tricked
out in a fancier GUI. Designed for hedge funds to help their traders identify
profitable deals and analyze large inputs of historical data, Ranger has
so far functioned as a stand-alone package. It would take a substantial
infusion of capital to develop the product for multiple platforms and operating
systems.
Still the system's analytical capabilities are impressive. For example,
Ranger can correlate any number of market factors over almost any time interval,
and then can be queried to identify those time periods where the correlation
is strongest. For someone, an infusion of R&D funding might be a good
long-term investment. But unless Hirschfeld can quickly find a buyer, all
this capability will go up in smoke.
Triple-A Sub Guru Flies Solo
In her own way Lisa Raiti is a pioneer. When she worked at Standard &
Poors, Raiti was one of the first people to develop the complex ratings
criteria for triple-A rated derivative product subsidiaries. Now she is
forming a new consultancy for banks, brokerages and insurance firms. Raiti's
goal for her month-old firm: "Our emphasis will be on structured solutions,
including highly rated ventures for credit sensitive businesses, and we
will offer capital and risk management solutions."
Like Murphy Brown and her baby, Raiti had not settled on a name for her
consultancy as of press time. Indeed, it was only in mid-February that Raiti
left her position as a managing director at Centre Financial Products, where
she marketed triple-A derivatives subsidiaries.
A native New Yorker-Raiti was born in the Bronx-she is accustomed to
doing things at top speed. Though she originally studied civil engineering
at Columbia University, Raiti went to on to get her MBA from New York University's
Stern School of Business. Before starting her career at S&P, she spent
more than six years in corporate finance, managing cash flows and large-scale
projects for Bristol-Myers Squibb and ABC.
The new business may be shrewdly timed to capitalize on recent dramatic
shifts in credit enhancement. "Derivatives firms have taken some blows
lately," notes Raiti. "There is a public perception that they
are more risky, and so for these firms, maintaining their credit ratings
in the current environment is a top priority." Furthermore, she believes
the recent spate of new triple-A subsidiaries, structured investment vehicles
and related joint ventures point to a ripe market for her brand of advice.
Harpal Sandhu's Internet Vision Thing
Seminars on risk management technology don't usually generate much in
the way of fireworks. But that's what happened at the International Swaps
and Derivatives Association's annual conference, held in San Francisco on
March 6-8.
Seizing the center stage at a seemingly innocuous panel entitled "Technology for Risk Management" was Harpal Sandhu, president of Integral Development
Corp., who ruffled quite a few feathers among his fellow panelists by predicting
that the expensive integrated risk management systems they sold might soon
be replaced by Internet technology. Sandhu, who cofounded Infinity Financial
Technology in 1989 and worked at C*ATS Software, is launching RiskNet, the
first Internet-based market risk management system. Sandhu peppered his
remarks with two noteworthy pieces of "Netspeak."
The "Inter-network": According to Sandhu, the Internet is just
the Mother of all networks. He predicted that in the near future it will
give firms access to centralized processing capabilities, real time data
feeds, and distributed data servers. Smaller firms in remote locations would
be able to access their data and high-tech applications via the Internet
without investing in expensive hardware.
The "Intra-net": This, according to Sandhu, will allow larger
institutions to connect their centralized data and applications to far-flung
outposts via simple garden variety Web browsers instead of the expensive
systems they now have in place.
Some of Sandhu's colleagues claimed his ambitious vision ignored the
security concerns of firms who fear sending highly sensitive financial information
over the Net. Sandhu dismissed the notion, arguing that in the late 1970s
skeptics predicted that security fears would prevent people from using ATM
machines.
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